Here's where it started (2014), here's where it is today, and here's where it's headed over the next 30 years — matching typical system warranty coverage. Drag the slider to test your own assumption about the future.
Three paths forward: stay with PG&E, lease, or buy. Drag the slider below and see exactly what each one costs you.
8.0%
PG&E, actual history (2014–Now)PG&E, your current trajectory (Now–2044)A 2.9% lease/PPA, if started in 2014Lease, est. FMV buyout period (Yr 25–30)A 20-yr loan, if started in 2014
The solid white line (2014–Now) is real, documented history: PG&E's own published Tier 1/Tier 2 rates rose 7.6%–8.7% per year, compounded, over that stretch. The dashed orange line is a projection, not a fact — it's driven entirely by the slider above, which defaults to 8% (the midpoint of that historical range). The green lease/PPA line is a fixed illustration starting at PG&E's actual 2014 rate ($95/mo) with a 2.9% annual escalator, our most common lease term; it isn't affected by the slider. It runs solid through year 25 (2039), then continues as a dashed estimate through year 30 to represent the fair-market-value buyout window, since an actual FMV price is negotiated per system and isn't a fixed formula. The violet loan line assumes a 20-year loan starting at the same $95/mo as the lease/PPA in 2014, with no escalation, dropping to $0/mo once the loan is paid off in 2034 — it also isn't affected by the slider. The red "stay with PG&E" figure below is your actual 2014–Now history plus your slider-driven trajectory carried out to 2044, with no offsetting savings or ownership at any point — that's the cost of the do-nothing option. This chart spans 30 years from the 2014 start (through 2044) to match typical equipment/warranty coverage. Chart uses a logarithmic scale so all lines stay readable together. Actual future PG&E rates, lease/PPA terms, loan terms, and FMV buyout costs could run higher or lower than any projection shown here. *The 5-year ROI referenced above is based on a no-battery cash-purchase system sized to offset about half of your PG&E usage — the fastest-payback profile, in most cases. A full-offset system or one with battery storage typically takes longer, around 6–8 years, to break even.